OSINTSUM: Tuesday 4 June 2024

OSINTSUM
Global Situation Update
Tuesday 4 June 2024

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International

Climate: The El Nino weather pattern that can cause extreme events such as wildfires and tropical cyclones is forecast to swing back into generally cooler La Nina conditions later this year according to the World Meteorological Organization.
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Africa

Somalia: Somalia expects all Ethiopian troops to leave the country by the end of 2024 as the African Union Transition Mission mandate expires in December according to Somali National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali.
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South Africa: Talks to form South Africa's first national coalition government are expected to begin this week after the governing ANC party received 40% of the vote, meaning it lost its majority for the first time.
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Tunisia: Tunisia’s Ministry of Education has banned students from wearing the keffiyeh - the black and white checkered scarf worn in solidarity with the Palestinian cause - inside exam halls over fears it could influence disruptive behaviour.
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Asia/Oceania

Australia: The Australian Defence Force is to begin recruiting from non-citizens from the Five Eyes community (the US, UK, Canada, and New Zealand) in an attempt to address the 4,400-person shortfall and eventually increase its current target strength of 63,600 to 80,000 by 2040.
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China: Security around Beijing’s Tiananmen Square has been tightened and access restricted due to the 35th anniversary of the massacre, while Hong Kong police have arrested several activists and cities in Taiwan and elsewhere have marked the date with vigils.
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India: Early counts in India’s national elections suggest incumbent Narendra Modi will win a third term, with his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party appearing to have secured 300 of its parliament’s 543 seats, giving them a simple majority.
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Maldives: The Maldives has banned Israeli passport holders from entering the country in response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and is to appoint a special envoy to assess Palestinian needs.
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Myanmar: Myanmar's military government is cracking down on gold and foreign exchange traders and agents selling foreign real estate, with 35 arrests announced in the last two days as part of efforts to stabilise its rapidly depreciating currency.
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Pakistan: A high court in Pakistan has acquitted former Prime Minister Imran Khan of leaking state secrets, but he will remain in prison due to a separate conviction.
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South Korea: South Korea is to suspend a 2018 agreement with North Korea in response to the DPRK’s recent campaign of sending balloons carrying rubbish and excrement over the border in a move that will allow it to conduct training near the countries’ mutual border and take unspecified “immediate measures” if necessary.
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Europe

Belgium: Farmers from over half a dozen EU nations converged on the bloc’s headquarters in Brussels in tractors ahead of its upcoming elections in protest at environmental measures they say will destroy their way of life.
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Europe: International campaign group Global Witness created 16 adverts containing false information about this week’s EU elections to test the disinformation policies of social media platforms. TikTok approved all 16, YouTube caught 14 but approved two, and X (formerly Twitter) caught all of them and suspended the group’s fake accounts.
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Georgia: The Georgian government has signed the controversial “foreign agents bill” into law despite mass protests by opponents who describe it as the “Russian law” due to its potential for stifling political opposition.
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Germany: The German army intends to order an extra 200,000 artillery shells from arms manufacturer Rheinmetall on top of the hundreds of thousands of shells it had already ordered in order to refill its stocks which have been heavily depleted due to donations to Ukraine.
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Germany: German authorities say there is evidence of an Islamist motive for last week’s knife attack in the southwestern city of Mannheim which saw a police officer fatally injured.
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Sweden: Sweden’s Seventh AP Fund (AP7) has blacklisted Saudi Arabia’s Aramco and six other companies from its portfolio due to their operations within oil extraction or coal production, which AP7 says means they are not acting in line with the Paris Agreement.
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Israel/Hamas

Gaza: The US wants the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution backing the proposal by US President Joe Biden to end the ongoing conflict in the strip. It needs at least nine votes in favour and no vetos from either the UK, France, China, or Russia to pass.
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Gaza: The UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) reports over a million people have been forcibly displaced from Rafah as a result of Israel’s current offensive.
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Israel: Israel’s far-right security minister Ben Gvir has repeated his threats to dismantle the government if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to the ceasefire agreement laid out by US President Joe Biden.
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Latin America/Caribbean

Brazil: Climate change made the recent flooding that devastated southern Brazil twice as likely and 6 to 9% more intense according to the World Weather Attribution group, who added that the El Nino weather system also contributed to the intensity of the rainfall.
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Middle East

Iran: Iran’s foreign ministry has summoned China’s ambassador in protest at its stance on the ownership of the Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa islands in the Gulf. Both Iran and the UAE claim ownership of the islands, and Iran is unhappy at what it describes as China’s “repeated support” for the UAE’s claim.
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Iran: European nations have submitted a draft resolution calling for Iran to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites and the barring of inspectors to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors for a vote later this week.
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Saudi Arabia: Foreign investment in Saudi Arabia has dropped by 40% to its lowest level since 2021, underscoring the challenge the kingdom faces in luring foreign investors and companies to diversify its economy from oil.
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Syria: Turkey’s defence minister Yasar Guler said plans by US-backed Kurdish groups to conduct local elections in northern Syria are “unacceptable” and a threat to Turkish national security. Turkey considers the move as a step by Syrian Kurds towards the creation of a separate Kurdish entity.
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Russia/Ukraine

France: Russia is waging an intense disinformation campaign aimed at tarnishing the reputation of the International Olympic Committee and stoking fears of violence at this summer's Paris Games, according to a new report from Microsoft's Threat Analysis Center.
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France: Three people have been released from custody after being arrested for placing five coffins at the foot of the Eiffel Tower with an inscription that read “French soldiers of Ukraine”.
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Malaysia: The US has sanctioned Malaysian semiconductor maker Jatronics over accusations it shipped electronic parts and components to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine, meaning any of its US-held assets are now frozen and all entities under US jurisdiction are barred from dealing with them.
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Poland: Polish authorities have arrested 18 people over the last six months on suspicion of pursuing hostile activities or planning sabotage on behalf of Russia or Belarus, with at least one involved in a plot to assassinate Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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Ukraine: Russia may eventually restart the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southeastern Ukraine, but shares the view of international monitors that it's not practical and possibly dangerous to do so now according to the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency.
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