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  • OSINTSUM: Tuesday 23 October 2023

OSINTSUM: Tuesday 23 October 2023

Estonian government believes cable damage incidents linked, US warns it will defence the Philippines against China, and Nigeria records 800 extra-judicial killings in last three years

Tuesday, 23 October 2023

Headlines

International
Energy: IEA says demand for fossil fuels likely to peak before 2030

Africa
Gabon: US ends assistance after declaring coup took place
Kenya: UN summit affirms goal to end female genital mutilation by 2030
Niger: EU agrees framework for sanctions on military government
Nigeria: 800 incidents of extra-judicial killings recorded in last three years

Asia/Oceania
Afghanistan: Herat suffers fifth major earthquake since 7 October
Afghanistan: US says Taliban are diverting international aid
Armenia: France to provide air defence capabilities
New Zealand: Enquiry into 2019 mosque shooting opened
Pakistan: Imran Khan facing possible death penalty for contravening secrets act
South China Sea: US warns it will defend the Philippines against China after collisions

Europe
Belgium: Brussels shooting perpetrator had escaped from Tunisian prison
Estonia: Government believes cable damage incidents are linked
Hungary: Prime Minister ramps up criticism of EU ahead of European parliament elections
Kosovo: Prime Minister accuses Serbian minister of heading paramilitary group
Switzerland: Right-wing Swiss People's Party wins general election
Turkey: Erdogan sends Swedish NATO accession protocols to parliament

Latin America/Caribbean
Argentina: Economy minister and right-wing populist in presidential run-off
Haiti: Transition Council chief urges UN intervention
Venezuela: Marina Corina Machado likely to be chosen as unity opposition candidate

Middle East
Iran: Rights groups decry jailing of Amini reporters
Iraq/Syria: US accuses Iran of "actively facilitating" attacks on US bases
Israel: Military holds screening of captured Hamas bodycam footage
Israel: US advises IDF to hold off Gaza ground invasion

US/Canada
Canada: Government highlights Chinese disinformation campaign
US: Chinese foreign minister to visit ahead of potential Biden/Xi meeting
US: State Department approves missile sales to UK, Lithuania, and Finland

International

Energy: IEA says demand for fossil fuels likely to peak before 2030
The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes global demand for fossil fuels is likely to peak by 2030, as increasing geopolitical shocks to the global energy supply are encouraging a more rapid transition to renewables.

This is the first time it has forecast the peak would occur before the end of this decade, and said some of the main drivers were Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict.

It said the use of coal, oil, and natural gas would account for 73% of global energy supplies by 2030, down from 80% where it has been hovering around for decades.

 

Africa

Gabon: US ends assistance after declaring coup took place
The US has formally determined that a coup took place in Gabon on 30 August and has ended officially ended its assistance to the country.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the US would resume its assistance when the military government took "concrete actions" towards returning the country to democratic rule.

The Prime Minister installed by the junta, Raymond Ndong Sima, urged Western nations not to tar all military takeovers with the same brush, saying Gabon's coup had prevented unrest and was conducted due to long-standing concerns over corruption.

Analyst Comment: US aid to oil-rich Gabon was minimal prior to the coup attempt, so it is unlikely this pause in aid will have a significant impact.

Gabonese military leaders overthrew Ali Bongo Ondimba, whose family had ruled the country for over 50 years, in August after he won an election which was widely criticised for irregularities.

 

Kenya: UN summit affirms goal to end female genital mutilation by 2030
A summit in Kenya which saw members of the UN Population Fund and UNICEF address the topic of female genital mutilation (FGM) and child marriage, and affirm their goal to end both practices by 2030.

The event, which was led by women and young people, took place in Nairobi between 18 and 20 October, and saw 236 participants from 237 countries take part, including politicians, FGM experts, investors, and influencers.

It was held that achieving the 2030 target would necessitate collective and well-funded actions as well as innovative approaches to community awareness of the harm the practices cause.

Analyst Comment: An estimated 650 million women and girls were child brides worldwide, including 130 million Africans. Globally, almost 200 million women and girls have undergone FGM in 31 countries across three continents, with 80% of cases occurring in Africa.

 

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