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  • OSINTSUM: Tuesday 11 June 2024

OSINTSUM: Tuesday 11 June 2024

UN Security Council passes Gaza ceasefire resolution, US to offer Saudi Arabia defence deal in exchange for Israeli normalisation, and Russia releases female prisoners to fight in Ukraine

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OSINTSUM
Global Situation Update
Tuesday 11 June 2024

Africa

Malawi: President Lazarus Chakwera said the search for a missing plane carrying the country’s vice president Saulos Chilima would continue with no resources spared. The plane was travelling from the capital Lilongwe to the city of Mzuzu yesterday when it failed to land due to bad weather.
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Asia/Oceania

China: China and Pakistan announced plans to upgrade the $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor - which connects Pakistan’s Gwadar Port with China’s Xinjiang region through roads and railway lines - during a recent visit by Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to Beijing.
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Hong Kong: Hong Kong authorities have rejected accusations by a UK judge who resigned last week citing concerns over threats to the rule of law in the city due to Chinese influence as having “absolutely no truth”.
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Pakistan: Pakistan has begun installing a nationwide firewall to regulate social media platforms and prevent the spread of “undesirable” content. An official said it would seek to identify sources of propaganda material, implement keyword filtering, and counteract the use of virtual private networks (VPNs).
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Philippines: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has warned Filipinos they should be prepared for any eventuality due to more pronounced external threats driven by tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
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South Korea: South Korean soldiers fired warning shots after North Korean troops crossed the border on Sundaby mistake according to Seoul’s military. A small group of North Korean soldiers carrying field tools including pickaxes entered South Korea on Sunday, but retreated when the shots were fired.
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South Korea: New Zealand is to send 41 more military personnel to the UN mission along the Demilitarised Zone between North Korea and the South, putting its total contingent at 53. Defence Minister Judith Collins said the move showed New Zealand’s commitment to support peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
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Taiwan: Taiwan authorities said a Chinese man arrested after his speedboat illegally entered a Taipei harbour is a former navy captain who may have been probing the islands defences. It added that there have been 18 similar cases in the past year.
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Europe

Belgium: Belgium is seeking a new government following the resignation of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, who quit in response to his Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats party’s poor performance in the country’s regional and national elections on Sunday.
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Europe: The US is monitoring the aftermath of the European Parliament elections which saw far-right parties in France and Germany make significant gains, particularly for signs of NATO-skepticism, but does not expect any major policy changes.
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Europe: Incumbent EU President Ursula von der Layen is attempting to form a majority which would enable her to stand for a second term in office following Sunday’s European Parliament elections. The choice of president - for which von der Layen is currently favourite - is expected to be made during a two-day summit starting on 27 June.
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German: Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany party has demanded a vote of confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz and new domestic elections after beating his SPD party to second place in Sunday’s European Parliament elections.
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Hungary: President Tamas Sulyok will not attend the summit of the Bucharest Nine - a bloc of European nations on the eastern edge of NATO - in Riga, Latvia, meaning the summit will not end with a joint declaration from the nine member nations for the first time since it was established in 2015.
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Moldova: Pro-European President Maia Sandu has signed changes to the country’s criminal code into law which expand provisions on treason in an attempt to fight organised crime groups she says are attempting to destabilise the country. Opponents of the new legislation, including pro-Russian parties and Amnesty International, say it risks undermining freedom.
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Poland: Poland will reintroduce a no-go zone at its border with Belarus on Thursday according to its deputy interior minister Czeslaw Mroczek, in a move to increase security following the fatal stabbing of a Polish soldier on the border by migrants last month.
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Turkey: The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) may have used Iranian-made loitering munitions to shoot down Turkish armed drones, suggesting strengthening ties between Tehran and the group, which is deemed a terrorist organisation by Turkey.
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Israel/Gaza

Egypt: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has welcomed a proposal by Russia to hold an Arab-Russian meeting to discuss the Gaza situation following talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the BRICS+ conference in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod.
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Jordan: Jordan is to host an emergency aid summit for Gaza today in an attempt to bring together leaders and aid officials to “determine means for enhancing the international community’s response to the humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip”. The summit is jointly organised by the UN, Jordan, and Egypt, and will be attended by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
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UN: The UN Security Council has adopted a resolution endorsing a US-backed ceasefire proposal that aims to end Israel’s offensive in Gaza. The resolution - which passed 14 - 0, with Russia abstaining - calls for an initial six-week ceasefire and the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel.

Middle East

Iran: Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s application to run as a candidate in Iran’s upcoming presidential elections has been rejected. Six other mostly conservative candidates have been approved for the vote, which is due to take place on 28 June.
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Saudi Arabia: The US is considering offering Saudi Arabia an unprecedented defence agreement in exchange for the kingdom agreeing to a normalisation of relations with Israel. Normalisation between the two Middle Eastern countries was previously in motion but has suffered a significant setback in light of Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
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Russia/Ukraine

Belarus: Belarus is to participate in joint nuclear drills with Russia according to its defence ministry. The exercises will be the second time the two countries have practiced deploying nuclear weapons together following the first stage of joint manoeuvres last month.
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Czech Republic: Prime Minister Petr Fiala said a failed arson attack which took place in Prague last week was “very likely” to have been organised and financed by Russia as part of a hybrid campaign of sabotage being run by Moscow against European nations.
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Germany: Germany is to begin hosting the two-day Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin today, which aims to gather support for assisting Ukraine’s recovery from Russia’s invasion.
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Poland/US: Poland and the US have launched a multinational group based in Warsaw, known as the Ukraine Communications Group, aimed at countering Russian disinformation on the war in Ukraine.
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Russia: Russia has released a small contingent of female prisoners to fight in its invasion of Ukraine, potentially signalling a new phase in the Kremlin’s war effort. It is currently unclear whether this is an isolated case, a pilot program, or the initial phase in a larger policy of recruiting female inmates.
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Ukraine: The US is to lift a ban on Ukraine’s Azov Brigade using American-made weapons and receiving training from US personnel after a new analysis found no evidence of human rights violations by the unit.
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US/Canada

US: The US ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, said the US needs its help to quickly replenish its missile inventory as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue in order for Washington to keep its deterrence credible in the Indo-Pacific region. Emanuel was speaking at bilateral talks aimed at accelerating military industrial cooperation between the two nations.
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US: The Port of Baltimore shipping channel has fully reopened and been declared “safe for transit”, 11 weeks after the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed when it was struck by a cargo ship.
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