OSINTSUM: Thursday 4 April 2024

OSINTSUM
Global Situation Update
Thursday 4 April 2024

International

Climate Change: 57 fossil fuel and cement producers are directly linked to 80% of greenhouse gasses emitted since the 2016 Paris climate agreement was signed according to the Carbon Majors Database.
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Conflict: United Nations Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba warned a recent study showed there had been a significant increase in the denial of humanitarian access in conflict zones in a “blatant disregard for international humanitarian law”.
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Environment: A study by the World Resources Institute and the University of Maryland found the world was losing the equivalent of 10 football fields of old-growth tropical forest per minute in 2023 despite successful efforts by Brazil and Colombia to reduce local deforestation.
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Africa

Africa: A study from the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa has found the continent is now emitting more carbon than it stores due to increasing agricultural use of the land, ending its status as a carbon sink.
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Africa: The United Nations General Assembly has adopted a resolution recognising that the Kimberley Process, which certifies rough diamond exports, “contributes to the prevention of conflicts fueld by diamonds”, and helps the Security Council implement sanctions on the trade in blood diamonds.
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Congo: The Allied Democratic Forces, an extremist group with links to the Islamic State, have killed at least a dozen people in a raid on a rural community in the east of the country, in the latest incident of violence near the Ugandan border which has seen almost 200 people killed this year.
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Ethiopia: Rights group Human Rights Watch has accused Ethiopia’s military of committing war crimes - including summary executions - in the country’s Amhara region earlier this year.
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Western Sahara: France is set to begin investing in Western Sahara in a warming of ties between Paris and Morocco following two years of diplomatic conflict in a move likely to anger Algeria.
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Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe has joined Zambia and Malawi in declaring a state of disaster in response to a southern Africa-wide drought which has seen the 80% of the country receive below-normal rainfall, with President Emmerson Mnangagwa requesting $2bn in emergency aid.
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Asia

India: A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found India was the world’s biggest arms importer between 2019 and 2023, and that this was the first period since 1960 to 1964 where deliveries from Russia or the Soviet Union accounted for less than half of their imports.
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Myanmar: Deaths from mines and other ordnance tripled to at least 1,052 in 2023, with children accounting for 20% of this figure according to the United Nations’ children’s agency UNICEF.
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Myanmar: Opposition forces the National Unity Government have conducted a rare mass drone attack on the country’s military government in the heavily-guarded capital Nay Pyi Taw, although no casualties were reported.
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Taiwan: At least 10 people are confirmed dead and 1,038 injured following the 7.2 magnitude earthquake which struck the island yesterday morning, with at least another 52 missing.
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Thailand: The Constitutional Court is due to rule on whether to dissolve the Move Forward party - which won the most seats in last year’s election - for allegedly violating the constitution by proposing to amend a law which prohibits defaming the Thai Royal Family.
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Tonga: Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni said he was open to China’s offer of security support when his country hosts a major regional leaders’ summit, despite the US urging Pacific nations not to strike security pacts with Beijing.
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Europe

Austria: Justice Minister Alma Zadic is planning to tighten the country’s espionage laws - which currently explicitly ban it if it is targeting Austria but not if it targets other countries or international organisations - following the arrest of a former Austrian intelligence officer on charges of spying for Russia.
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Belgium: Foreign ministers from NATO’s 32 member states will hold a ceremony at the bloc’s Brussels headquarters to mark its 75th anniversary later today.
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European Union: The European Union has announced investigations into two China-owned solar panel manufacturers suspected of receiving subsidies from Beijing.
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Ireland: A report by the Institute of International and European Affairs found the initial cost of uniting Ireland would be at least $8.6bn per year, potentially rising to $21.5bn per year, primarily due to the shortfall in what is raised in taxes in Northern Ireland compared to how much is spent on public services.
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United Kingdom: Over a dozen politicians (including a serving government minister), advisers, and journalists are thought to have been targeted in a WhatsApp phishing attack in what is thought to be an attempt to obtain kompromat on them.
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United Kingdom: Three suspects being investigated in connection with the London stabbing of Pouria Zeraati - a presenter from TV channel Iran International, which was heavily critical of Iran’s government - are thought to have fled the country according to British counterterrorism police.
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Israel/Hamas Conflict

Israel: Intelligence sources say Israel’s bombing campaign in Gaza used an AI-powered database called Lavender which identified 37,000 potential targets with potential links to Hamas.
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Israel: Security has been enhanced at Israel’s embassies across the world “in anticipation of a potential Iranian attack” following its killing of a senior Iranian official in a strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus earlier this week.
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Israel: The United Nations Human Rights Council is to consider a draft resolution calling for an arms embargo on Israel tomorrow, citing the “plausible risk of genocide in Gaza”.
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Latin America/Caribbean

Argentina: Over 15,000 state jobs have been cut as part of President Javier Milei’s campaign to cut spending, in a move which is likely to put his administration increasingly at odds with already hostile protestors and trade unions.
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Colombia: Clashes between armed groups in Colombia have intensified despite numerous peace talks and ceasefires implemented by the government according to the Red Cross, with civilians “paying the price”.
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El Salvador: At least 241 people are thought to have died in El Salvador prisons since the start of President Nayib Bukele’s “war on gangs” two years ago according to rights group Humanitarian Legal Relief.
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Guyana: Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro has accused the US of building “secret military bases” in the region of Essequibo, an oil-rich region of Guyana which Caracas claims belongs to Venezuela.
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Middle East

Iran: Three security personnel, including a police station deputy, have been killed in “terrorist attacks” in the cities of Rask and Chabahar in the southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan according to state media, with the jihadist Jaish al-Adl group thought to be responsible.
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Iran: Rights group Amnesty International has called for “robust international action” to halt what it calls a “horrifying surge in executions” in Iran’s prisons in 2023 that saw 853 people executed, over half of whom were for drug offences.
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Iran: Hardline conservative politician Yasser Jebraily - who is closely aligned with President Ebrahim Raisi - has demanded an action of similar magnitude be taken in response to Israel’s strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria.
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Yemen: The slowing pace of attacks by Houthi rebels on shipping in the Red Sea indicates they may be running low on supplies of drones and anti-ship missiles according to the head of US Air Forces Central Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich.
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US/Canada

Canada: Former Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole told the Foreign Interference Commission Inquiry that he believes his party lost up to nine seats due to a misinformation campaign orchestrated by China in the 2021 election.
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US: South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix is to invest $3.87bn in a new semiconductor packaging plant and research centre in Indiana.
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US: A judge has refused former-president Donald Trump’s request to delay his 15 April hush-money trial until the Supreme Court has ruled on his claim to presidential immunity.
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