- OSINTSUM
- Posts
- OSINTSUM: Monday 5 February 2024
OSINTSUM: Monday 5 February 2024
EU announces $10.8bn investment in "Middle Corridor" trade route between Europe and Asia, Al Qaeda opens eight new training camps in Afghanistan, and UK water companies warned over cyber attack threat to drinking water
OSINT Ltd
February 05, 2024
OSINTSUM
Global Situation Update
Monday 5 February 2024
Headlines
Africa
Ethiopia: At least 8 million starving due to conflict and drought
Namibia: President dies in hospital age 82
Somalia: Islamic State report campaign against Al-Shabaab in north
Asia/Oceania
Afghanistan: Al Qaeda opens 8 new training camps and facilitation network to Iran
Maldives: Docking of Chinese ship increases Beijing/New Delhi tensions
New Zealand: Defence capability report expected in June
Philippines: Government ready to use force to prevent secession
Europe
EU: Investment in Middle Corridor to Central Asia announced
Kosovo: Block on Serbian currency causes concern in EU and US
UK: Moody's warns of "elevated" risk of hackers targeting drinking water
Latin America/Caribbean
Chile: Concerns forest fires will spread to population centres
El Salvador: Incumbent Bukele claims presidential election victory
Kenya: President to overrule courts on Haiti police deployment ban
Middle East
Saudi Arabia: Defence cooperation deal with South Korea signed
Yemen: US launches further strikes on Houthi targets
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
France: Russian ambassador summoned over attack on humanitarian workers
G7/EU: Plan to use frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine considered
Ukraine: Zelenskyy considering major shake-up of government officials
US/Canada
US: Senate announces $118bn bill on border and Ukraine and Israel aid
Africa
Ethiopia: At least 8 million starving due to conflict and drought
Ethiopia's government has warned that 16 million people across the country are facing food shortages, and at least half of those affected are suffering emergency levels of food insecurity.
Doctors report the number of severely malnourished children being admitted to hospitals has doubled since 2020 when the civil war between the Ethiopian authorities and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front began.
The UK's African Minister Andrew Mitchell warned there are serious indicators that a famine was at risk of developing, and pledged $125m of support for Ethiopia.
Analyst Comment: To meet the definition of famine a country must have 20% of households at risk of extreme food shortages, 30% of children under five suffering from acute malnutrition, and two people out of every 100,000 dying of malnutrition per day.
Namibia: President dies in hospital age 82
Namibia's President Hage Geingob has died in hospital at the age of 82 according to his administration.
Acting President Angolo Mbumba appealed for calm, adding that the country's cabinet would convene with immediate effect to make necessary state arrangements.
Geingob, who had been president since 2015, had been receiving treatment for cancer, and was due to finish his second and final term in office later this year.
Analyst Comment: Geingob had maintained close relations with the US and other Western nations, but also forged strong ties with China - who he defended against claims of "economic colonialism".
Namibia, on the southwestern coast of Africa, is one of the most stable democracies on the continent.
Somalia: Islamic State report campaign against Al-Shabaab in north
Islamic State (IS) has reported it conducted a campaign against Al Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab in the north of Somalia between March and December last year.
The campaign resulted in IS taking territory from Al-Shabaab in the semi-autonomous state of Puntland, and was part of a series of at least 51 clashes between the groups since the emergence of the Somali IS faction in late 2015.
According to a report in IS's weekly Al-Naba newsletter, approximately 36 of these clashes took place in last year's campaign, leading to the deaths of 238 Al-Shabaab fighters. These claims have not been independently verified.
Analyst Comment: IS's seizure of territory from Al-Shabaab is likely to be more of a propaganda victory than anything else. Due to being significantly smaller in size than its rival, it is unable to project power to the same degree.
The group only has around 100-150 fighters in Puntland according to the UN, although it also has active cells in the capital Mogadishu.
Asia/Oceania
Afghanistan: Al Qaeda opens 8 new training camps and facilitation network to Iran
Al Qaeda (AQ) has opened eight new training camps, five madrasas, and a weapons depot and safe houses to help its members move to and from Iran according to a UN monitoring team.
The UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team added this means the group now operates 10 training camps across Afghanistan and that it maintains a "close" relationship with Afghan's Taliban rulers.
Senior AQ member Hakim al-Masri is thought to be responsible for the training camps, where suicide bombers are being given training. The new safe houses are located in Herat, Farah, and Helmand - which are on the Iranian border - as well as in Kabul.
Analyst Comment: The US has documented the presence of senior AQ leaders in Iran in recent years, as well as highlighting a deal between the Iranian regime and AQ to allow the Islamist group to maintain its "core facilitation pipeline" inside Iran.
Maldives: Docking of Chinese ship increases Beijing/New Delhi tensions
The impending arrival of Chinese research vessel "Xiang Yang Hong 3" at a Maldives port has further increased tensions between India and China, with New Delhi viewing it as a diplomatic snub.
Despite claims by China that the visit is a routine port call for personnel rotation and maintenance, Indian officials fear it may be collecting data which could be used by the Chinese military in future submarine operations.
The upcoming visit comes as relations between India and the Maldives is rapidly breaking down due to the Maldives new pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu's "India out" policy, which has already seen Indian troops ordered to leave the country by May and the cancelling of a hydrographic survey agreement with India.
Analyst Comment: The ship was previously slated to visit the Sri Lankan capital of Colombo before its stop at the Maldives, but this was cancelled likely due to pressure from the Indian government.
New Zealand: Defence capability report expected in June
New Zealand's Defence Minister Judith Collins has said she expects to receive a review of the country's defence capabilities in June as part of efforts to modernise the New Zealand military.
The country's armed forces are currently being forced to rely on aging equipment and are facing personnel shortages that have left nine of its navy's ships idle and plans for a new patrol ship for the Southern Ocean put on hold.
Collins said the report, known as the Defence Capability Plan, would guide investment in the military, and was ordered after a review last year found the current strategic environment faced by New Zealand was the most challenging in decades and that its military was not up to the task.
Analyst Comment: New Zealand, which has a population of only five million but a land mass the size of the UK and the world's sixth-largest economic zone, collaborates with Australia on defence procurement and has recently increased its interest in joining the AUKUS defence pact with Australia, the US, and the UK.
Philippines: Government ready to use force to prevent secession
The Philippine government announced it is ready to use "authority and force" to prevent a secession attempt following an independence call by former President Roberto Duterte for some southern states.
Current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's alliance with Duterte broke down this week over disagreements around the former's attempts to amend the constitution, which has resulted in the latter calling for independence for his hometown of Mindanao from the Philippines.
In response, National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said any attempt to secede "will be met with the government by resolute force", adding that any calls for secession could reverse the progress made by the government's peace deal with former separatist groups.
Analyst Comment: Marcos Jr says he is attempting to amend the 1987 to make it easier to secure foreign investment, but Duterte is accusing him of doing it to stay in power.
Mindanao suffered from violence for decades due to conflict between the government and insurgents, until a peace deal was signed with the region's largest rebel group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), in 2014. The deal saw MILF stop fighting for independence in exchange for the Muslim region of the Bangsamoro being given more autonomy.
Europe
EU: Investment in Middle Corridor to Central Asia announced
EU officials have announced European and international investors will invest at least $10.8bn in the development of the transit network linking Europe and Asia known as the "Middle Corridor".
The investment - which will go toward an assortment of projects including roads, railways, and renewable energy - was revealed at an investment forum for EU-Central Asia Transport Connectivity in Brussels, Belgium.
The route begins in China, travels through Kazakhstan, then across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, through Georgia, then Turkey, over the Black Sea to Ukraine, then to Europe via Poland.
Analyst Comment: Using the Middle Corridor to transport goods avoids transiting Russia and the Red Sea, giving suppliers more confidence their goods will arrive on time and without additional cost.
However, its capacity is nowhere near at the level of goods transported across the Red Sea - around 7 million tons of grain alone per month - prior to the recent Houthi attacks. In the ten months leading up to December last year, around 2.256 million tons of cargo was transported over the route.
Kosovo: Block on Serbian currency causes concern in EU and US
The EU and US have voiced concerns over police raids on Serb minority organisations in the north of Kosovo and a recent ban on the use of Serbian currency.
Most of Kosovo uses the euro despite the country not being an EU member, but the Serbian dinar is used in parts of the north which are mostly populated by ethnic Serbs. The ban on the dinar will make it more difficult for many residents to receive financial support from the Serbian government, and may lead to civil unrest.
Additionally, in the past week, Kosovan police have searched - and closed some of - the offices of Serbian-administered institutions and seized papers and computers thought to contain illegal documents, adding to the risk of unrest.
Analyst Comment: Both Serbia and Kosovo want to join the EU, but the bloc has warned them their continued failure to repair relations is damaging the chances of this happening.
UK: Moody's warns of "elevated" risk of hackers targeting drinking water
Credit ratings agency Moody's has warned water companies are facing an "elevated" risk of attacks on networks controlling drinking water by cyber attackers.
It said that hackers were increasingly focusing on companies which manage critical national infrastructure (CNI), such as water and wastewater treatment companies, and that the advancement of artificial intelligence could make it easier for them to do so.
The report added the growing use of data-logging equipment to monitor water consumption, the use of digital smart meters, and the closer integration of networks controlling water treatment systems and the rest of water companies' IT was providing an increase attack surface.
Analyst Comment: Water suppliers in the UK want to increase spending on digital security, but require permission from the industry regulator to do so as it would result in increased bills for consumers.
Moody's warning comes amid wider concerns over the digital security of UK CNI, including a host of cybersecurity problems in its nuclear industry that were recently highlighted by The Guardian.
Latin America/Caribbean
Chile: Concerns forest fires will spread to population centres
Chilean authorities are concerned forest fires in Chile which have already killed 46 people and destroyed 1,100 homes could spread to more densely populated areas.
Interior Minister Carolina Toha said there are 92 forest fires burning in the centre and south of the country currently affecting 43,000 hectares, and that they are growing rapidly.
The death toll from the wildfires has already surpassed the total from those that took place in last year's record heat wave, which saw 27 people killed and over 400,000 hectares burned.
Analyst Comment: The west of South America has experienced droughts and above-average temperatures this year due to the El Nino weather system, increasing the risk of forest fires.
El Salvador: Incumbent Bukele claims presidential election victory
Incumbent Nayib Bukele - who transformed El Salvador from one of the world's most violent to one of Latin America's safest - has claimed victory in the country's presidential election.
Bukele saw his popularity among El Salvadorians rise significantly due to his crackdown on gang activity which has seen around 75,000 people arrested and the murder rate fall from 106 per 100,000 in 2015 to 7.6 last year.
However, rights groups have said thousands of those arrested were not guilty of any crime, and say the price of the reduction in crime has been the erosion of civil liberties.
Analyst Comment: Bukele - who will be sworn in in June - was only able to stand for re-election after the country's constitutional court - which is dominated by his allies - ruled a president would be able to stand for a second term provided they stand aside for an arbitrary period ahead of re-election.
Kenya: President to overrule courts on Haiti police deployment ban
Kenya's President William Ruto intends to go ahead with the deployment of police officers to Haiti in spite of a ruling by the county's high court the move is unconstitutional.
Foreign secretary Korir Sing'oei told the New York Times that the troops would be deployed "immediately" after a bilateral agreement between Haiti and Kenya is reached, and that he would not wait for the outcome of a state appeal against the high court's ruling to proceed.
If the deployment does go ahead, it would make the deployment of a UN-backed multinational assistance force - which the Kenyan officers are slated to lead - to Haiti more likely.
Analyst Comment: Haiti is currently experiencing a spike in violent crimes following the assassination of a powerful gang leader in the nation's capital which has led to a power vacuum. Over 2,300 people were killed or kidnapped in the last three months of 2023 alone in Haiti.
Middle East
Saudi Arabia: Defence cooperation deal with South Korea signed
Saudi Arabia and South Korea have signed a memorandum of understanding to expand cooperation on defence, as Seoul looks to expand its arms sales to the Middle East.
The agreement will see a joint committee established to conduct research and development on and the production of weapons systems according to South Korea's Defense Acquisition Program Administration.
The deal was signed in Saudi Arabia by Saudi defence minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud and his South Korean counterpart Shin Won-sik who was visiting the country for the World Defense Show.
Analyst Comment: South Korean weapons exports to the Middle East grew almost tenfold between 2013 and 2022 according to its Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The country saw its global arms sales increase from $7.25bn in 2021 to $17bn the following year, an indication of its ambitions to become one of the world's biggest arms suppliers.
Yemen: US launches further strikes on Houthi targets
The US launched further strikes on Houthi targets yesterday morning, hitting a cruise missile and four anti-ship missiles it said were being prepared for an attack against shipping on the Red Sea.
The strikes came the day after 48 joint US-UK strikes on the Iranian-backed group, and more are expected after US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said there would be "more steps" to deter Iranian-backed groups in the region.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due to arrive in the Middle East later for the fifth time since October last year, where he will visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and the West Bank, where he will likely attempt to quell concerns the US is fuelling violence in the region.
Analyst Comment: The Houthi-run Al-Masirah TV reported US aircraft conducted 15 night-time raids in Houthi-controlled areas of western Yemen, including 11 in Hudaydah and four in Saada province. It is not yet clear whether these are the same strikes reported by the US or additional ones.
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
France: Russian ambassador summoned over attack on humanitarian workers
France is to summon the Russian ambassador in protest at the deaths of two French humanitarian aid workers in Ukraine and an increase in Russian disinformation operations against it.
The aid workers were killed in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson on 1 February by a Russian drone in an incident described by French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne as an act of "barbarity".
The French Foreign Ministry has warned that Russian disinformation is likely to increase ahead of President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Ukraine later this month.
Analyst Comment: Franco-Russian relations have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks after Paris pledged to increase its support for Ukraine, including the provision of long-range missiles, on 16 January.
Shortly after the announcement, Russia claimed to have killed 60 French mercenaries in a strike on a building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, without providing any evidence. France denies any French mercenaries were operating in the country.
G7/EU: Plan to use frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine considered
The Group of Seven (G7) leading industrial nations and the EU are considering proposals to use over $250bn of frozen Russian assets as collateral to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The proposal envisages G7 and EU nations selling debt to pay for rebuilding Ukraine, with the frozen assets offered up as collateral in anticipation of Russia being found liable to pay for the damage under an eventual settlement under international law.
If Russia was to ignore any such ruling and refuse to pay for the damage, the frozen funds would then be released to pay for the reconstruction.
Analyst Comment: Opponents to the proposals are concerned permanently confiscating foreign assets could deter other nations from depositing funds in G7/EU banks in future.
Ukraine: Zelenskyy considering major shake-up of government officials
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is considering a major reshuffle of key government officials as part of what he describes as a necessary "reset".
Ukraine has already told the US the commander of its military, Valery Zaluzhnyi, is due to be replaced. His characterisation of the war as a "stalemate" along with the perceived failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive last year put severe strain on his relationship with Zelenskyy.
Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the country's Defence Intelligence Directorate, and Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces, have been identified as favourites to replace Zaluzhnyi.
US/Canada
US: Senate announces $118bn bill on border and Ukraine and Israel aid
The US Senate has announced a $118bn bipartisan bill that would fund increased security at the country's southern border and provide military aid for Israel and Ukraine.
The bill would see $60bn of aid committed to Ukraine, whose efforts to hold off Russia's invasion have recently been hindered by a dwindling supply of US munitions, as well as $14.1bn in military aid to Israel, $2.44bn to increase maritime security in the Red Sea, and $4.83bn to support partners in Asia.
The deal would also give the president new powers to expel migrants immediately if authorities become overwhelmed with asylum claims, while applications at the border will be subject to quicker and more stringent enforcement.
Analyst Comment: It is far from certain the bill will pass into law. To do so, it needs to pass through both the Senate and the opposition Republican-majority House of Representatives. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said the deal would be "dead on arrival" if it reaches his chamber, as it does not go far enough on border security.
Reply