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- OSINTSUM: Monday 29 January 2024
OSINTSUM: Monday 29 January 2024
US and Chinese officials to discuss restricting supply of fentanyl precursors, Israeli ministers attend conference calling for Gaza resettlement, and Ukraine says no evidence POWs were aboard downed plane
OSINT Ltd
January 29, 2024
OSINTSUM
Global Situation Update
Monday 29 January 2024
Headlines
Africa
Italy: Plan to expand Italian influence in Africa to be announced
West Africa: ECOWAS rejects withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso
Asia/Oceania
Armenia: PM proposes non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan
India: New Delhi distancing itself from Russian arms supplies
Philippines: Bilateral meeting with US to be held over South China Sea tensions
Russia: Gas pipeline to China facing construction delay
China
Hong Kong: Arrangement on reciprocal recognition of civil cases signed with China
Hong Kong: Property giant Evergrande ordered to liquidate
Papua New Guinea: Foreign minister reveals talks with China on security cooperation
South China Sea: China allows Philippines to deliver supplies to disputed reef
Europe
Germany: Hundreds of thousands protest against far-right
Moldova: Deputy PM rules out Moscow role in Transdniestria dispute
Russia: Ukraine says no evidence POWs were on downed transporter
Spain: Protests in Madrid over Catalan separatist amnesty
Israel/Hamas Conflict
Israel: Ministers join calls for "resettlement" of Gaza
Israel: UN head urges reconsideration of UNRWA funding withdrawal
Latin America/Caribbean
Haiti: Government hopeful of positive outcome despite Kenya ruling
Middle East
Iran: Involvement in fatal drone attack on US base in Jordan denied
US/Canada
US: Anti-Muslim and anti-Palestinian incidents rise by 180%
US: Meeting with China on fentanyl precursors to be held in Beijing
Africa
Italy: Plan to expand Italian influence in Africa to be announced
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is due to announce her plan to expand her country's influence in Africa, which is expected to see it offer developmental help in return for stemming migration flows.
The so-called "Mattei Plan", named after oil company Eni's founder Enrico Mattei, will be presented in Rome later today (29 January) to a number of African and European leaders.
A draft decree issued in November indicates Meloni wants to take a "non-predatory" approach to helping African nations develop in areas including education, health, exports, and infrastructure, in exchange for them reducing the flow of migrants to Europe.
Analyst Comment: The path from North Africa to Italy across the central Mediterranean was Europe's busiest migration route in 2023, with over 152,000 migrants arriving in Italy this way. This was an increase of around 47,000 on 2022's figure.
West Africa: ECOWAS rejects withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) says it is yet to receive formal notice from Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso confirming their intention to leave the regional bloc.
The ECOWAS commission said the three countries were still part of the bloc, despite their military governments announcing they had withdrawn with immediate effect yesterday (28 January).
In the statement, the three nations' governments said they were considering forming a counter force known as the Alliance of Sahel States in response to threats by ECOWAS's Predident Bola Tinubu to take military action if the Nigerien junta refused to transfer power back to a civilian government.
Analyst Comment: All three countries were founding members of ECOWAS, and are currently led by military governments which seized power from civilian governments in military coups.
ECOWAS is made up of 15 nations (including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso), and is considered West Africa's top political and regional authority.
Asia/Oceania
Armenia: PM proposes non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has proposed the signing of a temporary non-aggression pact to Azerbaijan to keep the peace while negotiations over a more formal peace treaty are ongoing.
Both Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev have previously said a peace treaty could have been signed by the end of last year, but internationally-mediated negotiations have yet to make a breakthrough.
The non-aggression pact would include a mutual arms control mechanism and is aimed at preventing another war between the two Caucasus neighbours incase of any further delays to the peace treaty.
Analyst Comment: Azerbaijan retook control of its breakaway ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh on 19 September last year after three decades in a lightning offensive forced its inhabitants to surrender and reintegrate with Baku.
Following the surrender, almost the entire 100,000 population of the region fled to Armenia, causing a refugee crisis.
India: New Delhi distancing itself from Russian arms supplies
India is attempting to reduce its reliance on Russia for arms supplies and is slowly turning towards the West at a time when the US is looking to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific region.
An expert at New Delhi think tank The Observer Research Foundation said India was "unlikely" to sign any major military deal with Russia, adding that doing so would be a "red line for Washington".
Russia's ability to supply arms to India - the world's biggest arms importer - was severely hampered due to its invasion of Ukraine, which gave rise to concerns over India's operational effectiveness.
Analyst Comment: Russia has publicly urged India - which is expected to spend $100bn on defence over the next ten years - to increase the two countries' defence cooperation, but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi believes buying from the West is better suited to his "Make in India" programme which aims to promote domestic manufacturing.
Last year, India signed a deal with the US for General Electric to produce fighter jet engines domestically, marking the first time the US has granted such a concession to a non-ally.
Philippines: Bilateral meeting with US to be held over South China Sea tensions
The Philippines is to host a bilateral meeting with the US in Manila in the Spring to discuss plans to resist Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.
The so-called "two-plus-two" meeting will see US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austen meet with counterparts Enrique Manalo and Gilbert Teodoro in March, and is aimed at sending a message to Beijing that its expansionist policies in the South China Sea will be collectively resisted.
The venue and timing of the meeting are subject to change based on health status of Austin, who is currently recovering from prostate cancer, meaning it could be switched to Washington DC if he is unable to travel abroad.
Analyst Comment: The relationship between the US and the Philippines has strengthened significantly since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr came to office in June 2022. He gave the US military access to four new outposts in Philippine territory in addition to the five they previously had access to, and ordered joint defence patrols with the US navy last year.
In December, a Philippine envoy to the US said the South China Sea was the major flashpoint in the region (as opposed to Taiwan). China has asserted its territorial claims there by using hostile tactics such as ramming and firing water cannon at Philippine ships.
China
Hong Kong: Arrangement on reciprocal recognition of civil cases signed with China
Hong Kong's Department of Justice has signed an arrangement with China's Supreme Court on the reciprocal recognition and enforcement of judgments in civil and commercial cases.
The arrangement will reduce the need for parties to conduct parallel litigation in cases where disputes straddle Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, reducing legal costs and the time taken to conclude proceedings.
At present there is no precedent for reciprocal recognition or enforcement, so it is as yet unclear how it will work in practice.
Analyst Comment: The move is a further reduction in the autonomy promised to Hong Kong by China when rule of the region reverted to it from the UK in 1997, and comes as Hong Kong prepares to enact a new round of national security laws known as Article 23 which will further increase Chinese control over it.
Hong Kong: Property giant Evergrande ordered to liquidate
Struggling Chinese property giant Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court after it failed to reach a restructuring deal with its creditors.
The order is likely to have a knock-on effect on China's financial system despite authorities' attempts to prevent a selloff on the Chinese stock market, and further damage confidence in the country's slumping property sector.
It is not clear whether the ruling will affect Evergrande's operations in mainland China, although courts there have previously recognised bankruptcy rulings made in Hong Kong.
Analyst Comment: Real estate helped drive China's economic boom over the past decade, but slow economic growth, Covid-19 lockdowns, and the drying up of credit to developers has led to a crash in the industry responsible for around 25% of China's GDP.
Another Chinese property giant, Country Garden, is also at risk of liquidation due to defaults on its $200bn of liabilities.
Papua New Guinea: Foreign minister reveals talks with China on security cooperation
Papua New Guinea's (PNG) Foreign Minister Justin Tkachenko says his country is conducting early-stage talks with China on a possible policing and security deal.
The announcement comes weeks after the biggest nation in the Pacific Islands suffered nationwide riots which saw 22 people killed and a 14-day state of emergency declared.
Tkachenko said China had approached PNG with an offer to provide training, equipment, and surveillance technology in September last year, and that PNG would assess whether their offer is preferable to the security assistance already being provided by Australia and the US.
Analyst Comment: PNG has previously stated that Australia and the US were its security partners, while China was an important economic partner.
The development is likely to cause concern among Australia and the US, who are currently engaged in an "influence war" with China in the Pacific Islands region which has seen each party offer security and economic assistance to Pacific Islands nations in return for their cooperation.
Europe
Germany: Hundreds of thousands protest against far-right
Hundreds of thousands of people have protested across Germany for a third weekend in a row against the rise in popularity and policies of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Tens of thousands protested in Hamburg and the western city of Duesseldorf, while dozens of smaller protests took place in cities including Aachen, Osnabrueck, Kiel, Sigmaringen, and Wittenberg.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz applauded the protests, stressing that the government needed the backing of its citizens to safeguard democracy.
Analyst Comment: AfD members were recently exposed for holding a meeting with neo-Nazis in which they discussed deporting millions of immigrants, including some with German citizenship.
There is growing concern among some in Germany over the rise in popularly of AfD, particularly in eastern Germany where three states are due to hold elections this coming Autumn.
Moldova: Deputy PM rules out Moscow role in Transdniestria dispute
Moldova has ruled out bringing in Moscow to help resolve a three-decades-old dispute with the breakaway pro-Russian enclave of Transdniestria, which lies on the Moldova's Ukrainian border.
Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian made the comments while discussing his pro-European government's drive to secure EU membership.
He added that the 5+2 Transdniestria negotiating process that has been in place for 20 years was currently "frozen" and can serve no purpose while Russia is pursuing its invasion of Ukraine.
Analyst Comment: The 5+2 process is a diplomatic negotiation platform aimed at finding a solution to the dispute between Moldova and Transdniestria, which make up the "2". The "5" are mediators Russia, Ukraine, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and observers the EU and US.
Transdniestria - which is not internationally recognised and is heavily dependent on Moscow - split from Moldova prior to the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to a war in 1990 before a ceasefire was signed in 1992.
Russia: Ukraine says no evidence POWs were on downed transporter
Ukrainian officials say there is no credible evidence backing up Russian claims Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) were on a military transport plane shot down by Ukrainian armed forces last week.
The IL-76 aircraft was struck by Ukrainian missiles on 24 January while flying over Russia's southern Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine.
Russia claims it was carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs ahead of a prisoner exchange, along with nine Russians, but has yet to show any conclusive evidence of this.
Analyst Comment: Russia has released a number of videos it claims "prove" the Ukrainian POWs were on the plane. However, none of these videos actually show the POWs either embarking onto the plane prior to take off or the bodies of the POWs following the crash.
Israel/Hamas Conflict
Israel: Ministers join calls for "resettlement" of Gaza
Several ministers in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government have joined thousands of people at a conference in Jerusalem calling for a "resettlement" of the Gaza Strip.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich delivered keynote speeches at the conference, dubbed "Settlement Brings Security".
The conference, which was organised by the right-wing Nachala organisation, called for Israel to rebuild settlements in both Gaza and northern parts of the West Bank.
Analyst Comment: The Nachala organisation is a group which advocates the expansion of Jewish settlements, which are considered illegal by international and humanitarian bodies.
Israel previously dismantled its settlements in Gaza in 2005 after 38 years of occupation, leaving it in the control of the Palestinian Authority before Hamas assumed control of it in 2006.
Israel: UN head urges reconsideration of UNRWA funding withdrawal
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has urged the 10 countries which have withdrawn their funding of the UNRWA to reconsider, stating it penalises Gazans for the actions of a dozen staff members.
The countries withdrew funding after twelve staff members of the UNRWA - which provides humanitarian relief to Palestinian refugees - were found to have participated in Hamas's attack on Israel in October last year.
Michael Fakhri, the UN special rapporteur on the right to food, said that famine was both imminent and inevitable in Gaza as a result of the funding withdrawal.
Analyst Comment: Australia, Canada, Italy, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the UK, and the US have all suspended funding the UNRWA, while France has announced it has no plans to fund the UNRWA going forward.
Israel's Foreign Ministry has vowed the UNRWA, which has 13,000 staff in Gaza and is responsible for the education of 30,000 children, will play no role in the strip once the conflict is over.
Latin America/Caribbean
Haiti: Government hopeful of positive outcome despite Kenya ruling
Haiti's government says it remains hopeful of a "swift and positive outcome" over the future deployment of a UN-backed multinational security force despite a Kenyan court ruling against it.
Kenya was due to take the lead of the proposed force and deploy hundreds of police officers to the mission, but its high court ruled the plan unconstitutional, throwing it into doubt. The Kenyan government - which hoped to have police on the ground this month - is to appeal the ruling.
Haiti's foreign minister Jean Victor Geneus has pleaded for the deployment to be speeded up, telling the UN Security Council that the current level of violence in the country is as barbaric as a war zone.
Analyst Comment: Haiti is the poorest nation in the Western hemisphere and has been experiencing a security crisis for years. This escalated significantly following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moise with gangs taking control of large parts of the country and restricting access to vital supplies such as food, fuel, medicines, and water.
Middle East
Iran: Involvement in fatal drone attack on US base in Jordan denied
Iran has denied claims it was responsible for yesterday's (28 January) drone attack on a US outpost near the Syrian border in Jordan which killed three US service personnel and injured more than 30 others.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said the allegations were "baseless", adding that the continuation of US strikes on Syria and Iraq along with the war on Gaza would only increase instability in the region.
US President Joe Biden accused Iranian-backed militia groups of conducting the attack, which was the first of the numerous attacks on US forces in the Middle East since the Israel-Hamas war began in October last year to result in a fatality.
Analyst Comment: Biden warned the US "will respond" to the attack on Tower 22, which is being viewed as a significant escalation in tensions in the region.
There have been at least 158 attacks on US and coalition forces in Iraq and Syria since the Hamas conflict began, which have all involved drones, rockets, and/or missiles, but have rarely caused significant injury or damage to infrastructure.
US/Canada
US: Anti-Muslim and anti-Palestinian incidents rise by 180%
Complaints over Islamophobic and anti-Palestinian discrimination and hate crimes have risen by 180% in the three months following Hamas's 7 October 2023 attack on Israel.
Among the incidents include the fatal stabbing of a six-year-old child in Illinois in October and the shooting of three students of Palestinian descent in Vermont in November.
The Council on American-Islamic Relations said it had received 3,578 complaints in the last three months of 2023, with incidents of employment discrimination (662) the most common followed by hate crimes (478) and education discrimination (448).
Analyst Comment: The US government recently issued security guidelines for religious groups in the country after a rise in both Islamophobia and antisemitism since Hamas attacked Israel in October last year.
US: Meeting with China on fentanyl precursors to be held in Beijing
The first joint meeting of a US-China working group on the precursor chemicals required to produce fentanyl will be held tomorrow (30 January) in Beijing according to a US official.
The official stated the meeting was a "key part of the implementation of [the] bilateral cooperation" on the effort to reduce imports of fentanyl and its precursor chemicals from China into the US.
The meeting will be attended by officials from the US Departments of Homeland Security, Justice, State, and Treasury according to a statement from the National Security Council.
Analyst Comment: Fentanyl is a leading cause of drug overdoses and fatalities in the US. The US accuses China of being the primary source of the precursor chemicals synthesised by Mexican drug cartels into fentanyl prior to being trafficked into the US.
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