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- OSINTSUM: Monday 22 January 2024
OSINTSUM: Monday 22 January 2024
Exxon sues activist investors to prevent climate change motion, Iran vows retaliation for Israeli strike on IRGC members in Syria, and hundreds protest against the far-right in Germany
OSINT Ltd
January 22, 2024
OSINTSUM
Global Situation Update
Monday 22 January 2024
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Headlines
Africa
Libya: Production at country's largest oilfield resumes after two-week halt
Somalia/Kenya: CIA director makes secret visit amid growing East African tensions
Sudan: UN reports over 13,000 people killed in civil war
Asia/Oceania
Australia: "Golden Visa" scheme halted under migration overhaul
North Korea: UK sends UN photos of North Korean shipments to Russia
Europe
EU: Ports urged to cooperate in fight against narcotics smugglers
Germany: Hundreds of thousands protest against the far-right after AfD meeting
Russia: Official says NATO exercise marks return to Cold War schemes
Israel/Hamas Conflict
Israel: Netanyahu rejects Hamas proposals to end Gaza conflict
Israel: UN head condemns "utterly unacceptable" Gaza death toll
Middle East
Iran: Launch of "Sorayya" satellite sets new record for highest orbit
Iran: President warns Israeli strike on IRGC officials "will not go unanswered"
Iraq: UN staff demanding bribes in return for contracts
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Russia: Ukraine hits Baltic fuel terminal in long-range drone strike
Ukraine: Zelenskyy expects announcement of new aid packages in coming weeks
US/Canada
US: Exxon sues shareholders to block motion calling for faster reductions in emissions
US: FAA recommends inspections on Boeing 737-900ER following blowout
US: Ron DeSantis drops out of Republican candidate race, endorses Trump
US: Unknown but increasing amounts of fertile land being purchased by China
Africa
Libya: Production at country's largest oilfield resumes after two-week halt
Libya's state-owned oil company says production at the country's largest oil field has resumed after it was forced to stop for two weeks by protesters blocking the facility.
The National Oil Company said it had lifted the force majeure - a legal maneuver that frees a company of contractual obligations in the event of extraordinary circumstances - at the Sharara oil field in the south of the country.
The Libyan National Army, which controls the east of Libya and much of its south, brokered a deal with the protesters - who were demanding infrastructure repairs - to end the blockade.
Analyst Comment: The shutdown of the Sharara oil field, which is capable of producing 300,000 barrels per day or around a quarter of Libya's oil output, was one of the factors - along with attacks on shipping in the Red Sea - that drove a 3% increase in global oil prices on 3 January.
Somalia/Kenya: CIA director makes secret visit amid growing East African tensions
Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, made a secret visit to Somalia and Kenya last week amid growing tensions and instability in East Africa.
Burns met with Kenyan President William Ruto and the director of Kenya's National Intelligence Service on 15 January in Nairobi, before meeting Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu on 18 January.
The details of what was discussed in both meetings are undisclosed, but it is unusual for senior US intelligence officials to personally visit sub-Saharan Africa as the CIA typically communicates with governments in the region via station chiefs or American ambassadors. This suggests there was a compelling reason for Burns' direct engagement.
Analyst Comment: It is likely the escalating instability in the region was at least one of the factors behind the visit. The ongoing Sudanese civil war, growing turmoil in the Democratic Republic of the Congo following last month's elections, and the continuing operations of al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab are all contributing to increasing regional destabilisation.
Sudan: UN reports over 13,000 people killed in civil war
The UN reports over 13,000 are now confirmed to have been killed and 26,000 injured as a result of the fighting between Sudan's military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April last year.
The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs report also said 7.6 million people had been forced to flee their homes due to the war, with 6.1 million internally displaced and the other 1.5 million seeking refuge in neighbouring countries.
The war has also severely impacted sanitation and healthcare across the county, which has driven a cholera outbreak that has spread to nine states and affected at least 9,700 people, killing at least 269.
Analyst Comment: The true casualty figure figure is likely to be multiple times the figure reported by the UN. Deaths taking place outside of healthcare facilities and major population centres are unlikely to be documented.
Asia/Oceania
Australia: "Golden Visa" scheme halted under migration overhaul
Australia has suspended visa applications for individuals who invest over $3.3m in the country under its Significant Investor program as part of an overhaul aimed at attracting more skilled migrants.
The country's government revealed a new immigration strategy at the end of last year designed to lower new arrivals to pre-Covid levels, which also includes a crackdown on the abuse of student visas and greater targeting of skilled migrants to fill gaps in the economy.
Australia saw an exceptional level of migration in the year through June 2023, with over 500,000 people entering the country in that period.
Analyst Comment: Schemes such as Australia's program, which is also known as the "Golden Visa" program, have faced criticism globally over allegations they are abused by wealthy individuals and often fail to provide any benefit to the countries offering them.
One of the main issues is that the qualifying funds are spent on real estate or financial assets rather than being invested into productive areas of the economy.
North Korea: UK sends UN photos of North Korean shipments to Russia
The UK has sent satellite images of North Korean cargo shipments destined for Russia to a panel of UN experts as part of an attempt to trigger an investigation into a potential international sanctions violation.
North Korea is accused of supplying Russia with ballistic missiles and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells for its invasion of Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un in Russia's far east last September.
An unpublished UK defence intelligence report seen by The Guardian contains images taken between September and December last year of three Russian ships being loaded with containers at North Korea's Najin port before transiting to ports in Russia's far east.
Analyst Comment: The US announced last week that analysis of ballistic missiles fired by Russia into Ukraine showed that at least some of them had originated in North Korea.
Europe
EU: Ports urged to cooperate in fight against narcotics smugglers
Belgian Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden has urged seaports in the EU to join forces to combat the consistently evolving and "very creative" tactics of the drugs smugglers who exploit the terminals.
Verlinden will promote the idea on Wednesday (24 January) when she along with the European Commission meets with representatives from around 20 EU ports, Europol officials, other interior ministers, and officials from the maritime transport industry to launch the European Ports Alliance.
The alliance aims to harmonise security measures, increase port security, and reduce red tape and security delays to prevent trading companies switching to using ports with less stringent security measures.
Analyst Comment: The inauguration of the alliance will take place in Belgium's port city of Antwerp, which is the main gateway for cocaine being smuggled into Europe.
Cocaine seizures at Antwerp port break records most years, with 116 tonnes of the drug seized there last year. Violence linked to smuggling in the city is frequently reported.
Germany: Hundreds of thousands protest against the far-right after AfD meeting
Tens of thousands of people have protested against the far-right in around 100 locations across Germany in response to the discussion of proposals by a major political party to deport migrants en masse.
Police in Berlin reported 100,000 people took place in a demonstration in Germany's capital, while a protest in Munich had to be called off due to overcrowding after a similar number of people turned up.
Large crowds also turned up in cities including Frankfurt, Cologne, an Hamburg over the weekend, with many demonstrators calling for the AfD to be banned and comparing their "remigration" plans to the Nazi's initial plan to deport Jews to Madagascar.
Analyst Comment: Reports emerged last week that members of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party took part in a meeting with neo-Nazis where the deportation of asylum seekers, migrants, and even German citizens of foreign origin deemed not to have integrated was discussed.
The news comes at a time when opinion polls suggest support for the party is surging, three months ahead of three major regional elections in the eastern Germany where their support is strongest.
Russia: Official says NATO exercise marks return to Cold War schemes
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told state news agency RIA the size of NATO's Steadfast Defender 2024 exercise marks the "irrevocable return" of the bloc to Cold War schemes.
NATO announced last week it was launching its largest exercise since the Cold War, involving 90,000 troops, and that it will run from February to May later this year.
The aim of the drills is to rehearse how US troops could reinforce their European allies on NATO's eastern flank should a conflict with a "near-peer" adversary break out.
Analyst Comment: NATO did not mention Russia by name in its announcement, but its top strategic document identifies the country as the most significant and direct threat to its members' security.
Israel/Hamas Conflict
Israel: Netanyahu rejects Hamas proposals to end Gaza conflict
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected proposals by Hamas to end the war which would have seen hostages released in exchange for Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners.
Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said Israel's refusal to accept the proposals meant there was "no chance" of the return of the Israeli hostages.
Netanyahu said the deal would see Hamas left intact and the release of "all the murderers and rapists" being held by Israel, adding he rejected "outright" Hamas's proposals.
Analyst Comment: A deal brokered by the US, Qatar, and Egypt in November saw the release of around 100 of the estimated 240 hostages taken by Hamas in its 7 October assault on Israel last year in exchange for the release of 240 Palestinian women and children being held in Israeli prisons.
Israel: UN head condemns "utterly unacceptable" Gaza death toll
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has denounced what he described as the "utterly unacceptable" killings of Palestinian civilians in Gaza at the opening of the G77+China summit in Uganda.
He renewed calls for an "immediate humanitarian cease-fire to relieve the suffering in Gaza, allow humanitarian aid to reach everyone in need, and facilitate the release of hostages, which should be immediate an unconditional".
Guterres added the refusal to take steps towards implementing the two-state solution as "totally unacceptable", after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's again rejected the idea last week despite US pressure.
Analyst Comment: Gaza's Health Ministry, which is controlled by Hamas, claims over 25,000 civilians have been killed and over 60,000 have been wounded since the conflict began in October last year.
Middle East
Iran: Launch of "Sorayya" satellite sets new record for highest orbit
Iran has announced the succesfull launch of its Sorayya satellite by the aerospace unit of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to an orbit of 750km - the highest orbit on record for an Iranian satellite.
The 50kg satellite was carried into orbit by a three-stage Qaem 100 carrier, which can carry up to 100kg, according to the country's Communications an Information Technology Minister Isa Zarepour.
The launch of the remote sensing satellite will allow many subsystems developed by the Iranian Space Research Center to begin orbital testing, and therefore advance the country's space industry.
Analyst Comment: Iranian satellite launched are regularly criticised by the West who link them with the country's ballistic missile program, and say they violate a resolution by the UN Security Council. Tehran rejects these claims, and says they are conducted for research purposes.
This most recent launch comes days after Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at targets in the territories of neighbours Syria, Iran, and Pakistan.
Iran: President warns Israeli strike on IRGC officials "will not go unanswered"
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi has stated the Israeli airstrike which killed five Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) advisers in Damascus, Syria "will not go unanswered".
A large number of Syrian soldiers are also thought to have been killed in the strike which hit a residential building as the advisers were holding a meeting.
Israel has yet to comment on the remarks by Raisi, who described the killings as a "cowardly assassination" that "shows the height of Israel's desperation and weakness".
Analyst Comment: Since 7 October last year, Israel has conducted at least 46 strikes on territory in Syria, aimed at preventing Iran from gaining a foothold there and suppling weapons to its proxies in Israel and Lebanon.
Last week Iran responded to a previous Israeli strike on IRGC members in Syria by firing ballistic missiles at what it alleged was a Mossad base in in Erbil, Iraq, in an action that killed two Iraqi civilians.
Iraq: UN staff demanding bribes in return for contracts
UN staff in Iraq have been demanding bribes in exchange for helping businesses win contracts on postwar reconstruction projects across the country according to a Guardian investigation.
The allegations are part of a number of claims of corruption and mismanagement brought against the Funding Facility for Stabilization, a UN Development Programme scheme launched in 2015 and backed by $1.5bn from 30 donors, including the UK.
The report suggests bribes of up to 15% of the contract value have been demanded by UN staff, and that getting a contract without paying such bribes is impossible.
Analyst Comment: The UN carries out infrastructure projects in Iraq directly precisely to combat the culture of kickbacks which an LSE academic described as "the lifeblood of politics in Iraq".
However, the findings in this report suggest the UN is actually fuelling the culture rather than eliminating it.
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Russia: Ukraine hits Baltic fuel terminal in long-range drone strike
Russian energy company Novatek has been forced to suspend some operations at its Baltic Sea fuel export terminal due to a fire started by a Ukrainian drone strike.
The Ust-Luga complex, located on the Gulf of Finland around 170km west of St. Petersburg facilitates the shipping of oil and gas products to international markets. It also processes stable gas condensate - a type of light oil - into kerosene, naptha, and diesel ready for export.
There is no indication as yet as to how long the suspension will be in place for, how many tankers will be forced to idle outside the port, or what the knock-on effect on international energy markets will be.
Analyst Comment: If confirmed, the strike would be one of the longest-range successful drone attacks on Russian territory by Ukraine and would mean significantly more Russian infrastructure is potentially at risk from attacks by Ukraine's domestically-produced drones than previously thought.
If a drone has managed to travel such a long distance across Russian airspace without being shot down, it also raises questions about the effectiveness of Russian air defence.
Ukraine: Zelenskyy expects announcement of new aid packages in coming weeks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he expects multiple new military aid packages from Western states to be signed on specific dates later this month and in February.
His statement comes after conducting weeks of intense international diplomacy aimed at securing more political and military support from Western allies to help Ukraine fight off Russia's illegal invasion.
Earlier this month, the UK announced it would increase its support to Ukraine in the next financial year to $3.19bn, while French President Emmanuel Macron will head to Ukraine in February to finalise a security guarantee that will see Paris supply Kyiv with more sophisticated weapons such as long-range cruise missiles.
Analyst Comment: Western nations have provided unprecedented levels of military aid to Ukraine since Russia's invasion began in February 2022, but this has begun to slow as the war enters its third year with little change to the front line in 12 months and growing opposition to aid in the US.
US/Canada
US: Exxon sues shareholders to block motion calling for faster reductions in emissions
US oil giant ExxonMobil has filed a lawsuit against two activist investors in an attempt to prevent them from filing a motion calling for faster emission reductions at its annual investor meeting.
Amsterdam-based Follow This and Arjuna Capital want to put a climate resolution calling for Exxon to speed up its reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to a vote at the meeting.
Exxon says the motion violates regulations which prevent such investor petitions being resubmitted year after year if they do not garner increasing support. Support for the motion fell from 27.1% in 2022 to 10.5% in 2023.
Analyst Comment: US financial regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission has been criticised for allowing too many motions by environmental activist investors to be voted on at annual meetings. Should Exxon succeed in this case, it is likely to make it harder for activist investors to file such motions in future.
Activist investors are individuals and groups who buy shares in a company in an attempt to influence the way it is run so it more closely aligns with their principles.
US: FAA recommends inspections on Boeing 737-900ER following blowout
The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recommended visual inspections of all Boeing 737-900ER planes due to similarities with the 737-Max 9 which saw a panel detach mid-flight on 5 January.
The inspections should concentrate on "mid-exit door plugs", which are on the same type of panel that detached from Alaska Airlines Flight 1282.
There is no evidence of problems with the 737-900ERs door plugs, but they use the same design as those on the Max 9 model.
Analyst Comment: Both Alaska Airlines and United Airlines found door plugs on some Max 9s which contained bolts that were not tightened to the required torque levels during inspections following the 5 January incident.
US: Ron DeSantis drops out of Republican candidate race, endorses Trump
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the running to become the Republican candidate for this year's presidential election and has endorsed favourite Donald Trump for the candidacy.
DeSantis had been considered a strong contender to become the Republican candidate, but recent low showings in polls showed this was no longer the case.
His withdrawal means the only challenger to Trump's candidacy is now Nikki Haley, who will go head-to-head with Trump in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.
Analyst Comment: Trump is the heavy favourite to become the Republican candidate for the election, but an impending review by the Supreme Court on his eligibility to run for president could prevent him from doing so.
The court is due to rule on the validity of a decision by the Colorado Supreme Court that a 14th Amendment disqualifies him from running for "engaging in insurrection" by inciting the Capitol riot on 6 January 2021.
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