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- OSINTSUM: Monday 19 February 2024
OSINTSUM: Monday 19 February 2024
Denmark to hand over entire artillery stock to Ukraine, China sees smallest rise in foreign investment in years, and Israel to launch offensive on Rafah if hostages not freed by 10 March
OSINT Ltd
February 19, 2024
OSINTSUM
Global Situation Update
Monday 19 February 2024
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Headlines
Africa
Africa: AU announces aim to produce 60% of vaccines domestically
Asia/Oceania
New Zealand: Fertility rate at record low after fall in birth rate
Pacific Islands: Nations warn US funding delay could open the door for China
Papua New Guinea: At least 64 killed in largest tribal clashes on record
Singapore: Airlines to be required to use low-carbon fuel from 2026
China
China: Smallest foreign investment increase in 30 years
Taiwan: China to deploy coast guard vessels to patrol Taiwanese islands
Europe
EU: Von der Layen to seek second term as head of European Commission
Hungary: China offers security backing
Hungary: Government declines to meet US senators over Sweden NATO bid
Ireland: Issuing of diplomatic visas to Russians halted over espionage concerns
Italy: Court rules returning sea migrants to Libya is illegal
Russia: Courts jail hundreds of Navalny mourners
Israel/Hamas Conflict
Israel: Offensive on Rafah planned if hostages not freed by next month
Israel: US to use veto in UN vote on Gaza ceasefire resolution
Latin America/Caribbean
Falkland Islands: British minister to visit amid renewed Argentinian sovereignty claim
Mexico: Protestors stage mass rally against electoral changes
Middle East
Iran: Leader of Quds Force requested halt to attacks on US troops
Yemen: Houthi rebels attack Belize-flagged ship in Bab el-Mandeb strait
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Denmark: Entire ammunition stock to be sent to Ukraine
Ukraine: Prime Minister seeking Japanese support for reconstruction
US/Canada
US: Concerns raised over failure to compete with China on biotech
US: Hillary Clinton warns Trump intends to withdraw from NATO
Africa
Africa: AU announces aim to produce 60% of vaccines domestically
The African Union (AU) has announced that it aims to see 60% of vaccines used in Africa produced within the continent by 2040 in a bid to achieve greater vaccine security.
AU President William Ruto made the announcement during a visit to Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, where he said the Covid-19 pandemic expose Africa's "dire" pharmaceutical manufacturing industry after it was the last continent to access Covid-19 vaccines due to "vaccine nationalism".
Ruto was in Ethiopia for a meeting at the International Vaccine Institute in the capital that was also attended by numerous African heads of state as well as the director general of the Africa Centres for Disease Control.
Analyst Comment: Vaccine nationalism is where governments sign agreements with the manufacturers of vaccines to supply their own populations with vaccines before making them available to other countries.
A global health survey by Health Affairs found African countries had the highest rates of respondents that said they wanted a Covid-19 vaccine but were unable to obtain them. Unmet immunisation demand was highest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (43%), Nigeria (39%), and Cameroon (36%). In Western Pacific countries, unmet demand was lower than 7%.
Asia/Oceania
New Zealand: Fertility rate at record low after fall in birth rate
New Zealand's fertility rate decreased to its lowest level on record according to official data, which also showed a fall in the total number of births in the country.
Statistics NZ data showed there were 1,932 fewer babies born in 2023 than 2022, and that registered births were at their lowest for 20 years despite a 3% increase in the number of women aged between 15 and 49 - the ages at which most women have children.
The combination of fewer births and more women in the population led to the fertility rate - which tracks the average number of births women have in their lifetime - falling to the record low of 1.53 from 1.66 in 2022.
Analyst Comment: The fall in fertility rate is being attributed to factors including education, participation in the workforce, and increased access to contraception.
To replace population numbers in the long term, a country's fertility rate needs to be at least 2.1.
Pacific Islands: Nations warn US funding delay could open the door for China
The leaders of three Pacific Islands currently allied with the US have warned that delays in releasing critical funding could make them more susceptible to Chinese influence, including over Taiwan.
$7.1bn in assistance was due to be released to the islands in October last year as part of a security guarantee that was renewed the previous May, but Congress is still yet to approve it.
This has caused "uncertainty" according to a joint letter from the three countries' leaders, which added it is resulting in "undesirable opportunities for economic exploitation by competitive political actors in the Pacific", in what was later clarified by Palau's President Surangel Whipps Jr. as a reference to China.
Analyst Comment: Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia give Washington exclusive military access to an area of the Pacific larger than the continental US in exchange for economic assistance and security guarantees under an agreement known as the Compacts of Free Association (COFA).
Chinese economic incentives are believed to have played a role in the decision by another Pacific Island, Nauru, to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing - leaving only Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu as Taiwan's allies in the region.
Papua New Guinea: At least 64 killed in largest tribal clashes on record
At least 64 people have been killed in tribal violence in the northern highlands of Papua New Guinea in what police have described as the largest number of killings in the nation's recent history.
The deaths - which included both combatants and bystanders - occurred during firefights between the Ambulin and Sikin tribes which began at dawn on Sunday (18 February).
The military has been deployed to the area, but they are outnumbered and outgunned by the tribal militia groups. Australia has offered to provide security training in response.
China
China: Smallest foreign investment increase in 30 years
Investment by foreign businesses into China has risen by its lowest amount since 1993, highlighting and adding to the economic challenges being faced by Beijing.
China's direct investment liabilities rose by $33bn last year according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, an 82% decrease on 2022's figure.
Additionally, absolute investment into China fell in the third quarter of 2023 for the first time since 1998, and investment in the fourth quarter was lower than investment in the same period of 2022.
Analyst Comment: China has been cutting its interest rates in an attempt to stimulate its economy, meaning it has become more attractive for investors to keep their money in other advanced nations with higher interest rates.
Other drivers behind the reduction in investment include efforts to reduce reliance on China for production, and rising concerns that senior executives are at risk of arbitrary detention by Chinese authorities.
Taiwan: China to deploy coast guard vessels to patrol Taiwanese islands
The Chinese coast guard is to deploy its coast guard to conduct patrols around a small group of Taiwanese-controlled islands off China's coast in response to the deaths of two Chinese nationals.
The pair died after their speedboat overturned while they were attempting to flee a Taiwanese coast guard ship in the vicinity of the Kinmen and Matsu islands in an incident China has condemned as "wicked".
In a statement, the Chinese coast guard said they would strengthen their maritime law enforcement capability in the waters around the islands to "maintain the order of operations" there, adding that the waters were "not off limits" to Chinese citizens.
Analyst Comment: The strengthening of China's maritime security posture in the region is a further expansion of its "grey zone" warfare - using irregular tactics to expend a foe's resources or wear down its will without resorting to open hostilities - against Taiwan.
It is highly likely China will increase the use of maritime and airborne assets to conduct grey zone activity against Taiwan following the victory of the pro-independence party in the breakaway state's recent presidential elections.
Europe
EU: Von der Layen to seek second term as head of European Commission
Ursula von der Layen will announce she is to seek a second term as president of the European Commission (EC) at a meeting of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party in Berlin today.
The party that wins the most votes in the upcoming European Parliament election, scheduled for 6 - 9 June, usually sees their nomination for president of the EC appointed for a five-year term.
The role of head of the European Council, which is currently held by Josep Borrell and facilitates relations between prime ministers and negotiates positions over contested issues such as the recent row with Hungary over funding for Ukraine, will also be appointed at the same time.
Analyst Comment: Von der Layen must secure the backing of two other parties that make up the European People's Party - which includes the ruling parties of Ireland, Greece, Lithuania, and Sweden - before winning a vote at the EPP's Congress in March to secure her nomination as its candidate.
Hungary: China offers security backing
China has offered to provide security to its long-time strategic partner Hungary on public security issues in addition to the countries' existing trade and investment relations.
Chinese Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong told Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban that China was looking to deepen its law enforcement and security ties with Hungary at a meeting held last week to mark their 75th year of diplomatic relations.
He added that the aim was to improve bilateral relations in areas such as combatting terrorism and transnational crime, and see law enforcement capacity increased under China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Analyst Comment: Any increase in Chinese presence in Hungary would be seen as a diplomatic win for China in the EU, which is currently weighing up its relations with the world's second-largest economy against its clear differences in policy on human rights, trade imbalances, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Hungary has stood aside or opposed EU positions critical of China on issues such as human rights on multiple occasions and encouraged Chinese investment in spite of the EU urging its members to align their relations with China with those of the bloc.
Hungary: Government declines to meet US senators over Sweden NATO bid
A bipartisan delegation of US senators made an official visit to Hungary yesterday and urged the country's government to approve Sweden's membership of NATO immediately.
However, no members of the Hungarian government took them up on the offer to meet with them, which Senator Chris Murphy described as "strange and concerning".
During their visit, the delegation announced they intended to submit a joint resolution to Congress condemning democratic backsliding in Hungary and urging Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, to lift the country's block on Sweden's accession to NATO.
Analyst Comment: Hungary is the only one of NATO's 31 members not to have ratified Sweden's membership of the bloc, and the acceptance of any new member into the bloc requires unanimous approval.
While the founding treaties of many international organisations contain instruments that allow a member state to be suspended or kicked out - such as Article 7 of the EU treaty that was recently used to successfully pressure Hungary into agreeing to release funding to Ukraine - there is no such provision in NATO's North Atlantic Treaty.
Israel/Hamas Conflict
Israel: Offensive on Rafah planned if hostages not freed by next month
Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz has warned the IDF will launch an offensive against Rafah if Hamas does not release the remaining Israeli hostages by the start of Ramadan on 10 March.
His comments mark the first time Israel has indicated when its troops would enter the city in southern Gaza, where around 1.5 million internally displaced Gazans are sheltering.
Gantz added that Israel would act in a "co-ordinated manner, facilitating the evacuation of civilians in dialogue with American and Egyptian partners in order to minimise civilian casualties".
Analyst Comment: Gantz's reference to Egypt indicates Israel may be expecting some Palestinians to leave the Gaza Strip via the Egyptian border and seek shelter there - where a large walled enclosure appears to be being constructed for this purpose.
Saudi Arabia has warned Israel of "very serious repercussions" if Rafah is assaulted, while many other countries have warned there will be dire humanitarian consequences if it takes place.
Israel: US to use veto in UN vote on Gaza ceasefire resolution
The UN Security Council is to hold a vote on an approving an Arab-backed resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza tomorrow (20 February), but the US has said it will veto it.
The draft resolution contains demands for both Israel and Hamas to "scrupulously comply" with international law relating to the protection of civilians, and calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages taken by Hamas in their 7 October incursion into Israel.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the US has been working on a hostage deal "for months" that would bring at least a six-week period of calm from which an "enduring peace" could be built, and that the proposed resolution risked derailing this. However, Qatar said on Saturday (17 February) that these talks "had not been progressing as expected."
Latin America/Caribbean
Falkland Islands: British minister to visit amid renewed Argentinian sovereignty claim
The UK's Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, is to visit the Falkland Islands this week to show they are a "valued part of the British family" after Argentina renewed its claim over the South Atlantic archipelago.
Argentina's recently elected president Javier Milei has called for the islands - which are known in his country as "The Islas Malvinas" - to be handed over to Buenos Aires.
Cameron's visit will mark the first by a UK Cabinet minister to the islands since 2016. Following the visit, he will then travel to Paraguay - becoming the first UK foreign secretary to do so, before flying to Brazil to attend a G20 foreign minister's meeting on Wednesday (21 February).
Analyst Comment: Argentina claims the UK illegally took the Falkland Islands from it in 1833, but the UK says this date refers to when Britain sent a warship to the islands to expel Argentinian forces and that its territorial claim actually dates back to 1765.
Argentina attempted to seize the islands from the UK in 1982, but were denied after being beaten in a two-month war that saw 649 Argentinian and 255 British troops killed along with three islanders.
The inhabitants of the islands voted in favour of remaining a British Overseas Territory in 2013 by a margin of 99.8% to 0.2%.
Mexico: Protestors stage mass rally against electoral changes
Mexico City authorities say 90,000 people attended a mass rally in the city's Zocalo Square against changes to the electoral authority ahead of the upcoming June presidential elections.
The organisers - who claim the actual attendance figure was much higher - accuse President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of attempting to weaken the non-partisan National Electoral Institute (INE).
Obrador claims the INE is biased and corrupt, and has been pushing for a reform of the body since his victory in the 2018 presidential elections that would cut its funding by $150m and see it drastically reduced in size.
Analyst Comment: Obrador is unable to seek re-election as Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term under the country's constitution. He is backing frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum, who is currently the mayor of Mexico City.
Middle East
Iran: Leader of Quds Force requested halt to attacks on US troops
The leader of Iran's Quds Force advised Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq and Syria to cease attacks on US interests in the region following the fatal January attack on a US post in Jordan.
Esmail Qaani met with representatives of several militia groups in Baghdad airport on 29 January, two days after the strike on Tower 22 which killed three US troops, and warned them killing US service members risked retaliatory strikes on their senior commanders and infrastructure, or even a direct strike on Iran itself.
Most of the groups agreed to Qaani's request, with one faction initially refusing. The day after his visit, the most powerful Iranian-backed group operating in Iraq - Kataeb Hezbollah - announced it was suspending its attacks on US interests.
Analyst Comment: The move indicates Tehran wishes to avoid a wider conflict in the region which appeared to be on the horizon as its proxy militias increased their attacks on US interests in response to Israel's war on Hamas.
In the two weeks leading up to Qaani's visit there were over 20 attacks on US interests in the region, but none have been conducted since.
Yemen: Houthi rebels attack Belize-flagged ship in Bab el-Mandeb strait
Houthi rebels are likely responsible for an attack which damaged a Belize-flagged ship as it transited the Bab el-Mandeb strait that connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden according to authorities.
The Rubymar was damaged after an "explosion in proximity" to it occurred according to the UK military's Maritime Trade Operations centre, and private security firm Ambrey confirmed the British-registered, Lebanese-operated cargo ship was travelling to Bulgaria after departing from Khorfakkan in the United Arab Emirates.
The Houthis are yet to claim responsibility for the attack, but a spokesman for the group said they would release a statement on their activities later today.
Analyst Comment: The attack came as the US acknowledged it had conducted fresh strikes on Houthi targets, including against the first underwater drone seen since the group began launching attacks on shipping in November in response to Israel's offensive in Gaza.
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Denmark: Entire ammunition stock to be sent to Ukraine
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has announced his country will send its entire stock of ammunition and artillery to Ukraine, and appealed to other European nations to do more to help.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, he said "[The Ukrainians] are asking us for ammunition now. Artillery now... we have decided to donate our entire artillery".
He added that leaders citing production problems as a reason not to send materiel to Ukraine were making excuses, and that "there is still military equipment stock in Europe" that is not being used.
Analyst Comment: The EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell recently announced the bloc would only be able to donate 524,000 of the one million artillery rounds it pledged to Ukraine by March.
Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from the eastern town of Avdiivka over the weekend after being outgunned and outmanned by Russian troops.
Ukraine: Prime Minister seeking Japanese support for reconstruction
Ukraine's Prime Minister has urged Japan's government and private sector to increase its support for his country's reconstruction once its war with Russia is over.
Denys Shmygal told a conference of around 300 government and business leaders from Japan and Ukraine that Japan has been the fourth-biggest donor to Ukraine, providing around $10bn in support, which has helped millions of Ukrainians to survive.
He added that he wanted to work with Japan on the modernisation and reconstruction of Ukraine, and for Japan to be part of the "economic miracle" that will take place once the war is over.
Analyst Comment: Japan relaxed export controls on finished goods last year which enabled it to fill gaps in defence equipment left by donations from other countries to Ukraine. It has also provided "non-lethal support" to Ukraine in the form of aircraft detection systems and mobile power generators.
Last week, a joint report from the World Bank, UN, and EU, estimated the cost of reconstruction in Ukraine will cost around $486bn in the next decade.
US/Canada
US: Concerns raised over failure to compete with China on biotech
US politicians have raised concerns that the country is failing to compete with China in the biotechnology field, posing a risk to its national security and commercial interests.
The concerns have led to the introduction of bills which would bar "foreign adversary biotech companies of concern" - and specifically name four Chinese companies - from doing business with federally funded medical providers.
The Chinese Embassy in the US has described the bills as showing "ideological bias" and claim they seek to suppress Chinese companies "under false pretexts". Other opponents to the bills say they risk stifling the biotech industry, hindering the potential to combat disease and world hunger.
Analyst Comment: The bills echo recent US political intervention in the semi-conductor chip industry which has seen export controls placed on both chips and chipmaking equipment to China. Those controls led to stocks in some companies in the field suffering a significant reduction in value.
Biotechnology is a multidisciplinary field which involves the integration of natural and engineering sciences to achieve the application of organisms, cells and parts thereof, and molecular analogues for products and services.
US: Hillary Clinton warns Trump intends to withdraw from NATO
Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned former President Donald Trump intends to withdraw the US from NATO if he wins a second term in the White House.
She made the remarks at the Munich Security Conference, where she urged delegates to take Trump "literally and seriously", adding that he "means what he says" - likely referring to his recent comments that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies who were failing to maintain agreed spending on defence.
Clinton's comments came shortly after the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Brown Jr., warned the credibility of the US was at stake with its allies, including NATO, following Trump's remarks.
Analyst Comment: US Congress passed a resolution which means the President cannot withdraw the US from NATO without its approval. As there is strong bipartisan support for NATO membership in Congress it is highly unlikely Trump will be able to withdraw the US from the bloc.
Article 5 of the NATO treaty mandates that if any member of the bloc is attacked, the other members will come to its defence. This has only been invoked once in the past, when the US asked for aid in its response to the 9/11 terror attacks.
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