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- OSINTSUM: Friday 2 February 2024
OSINTSUM: Friday 2 February 2024
US urges Hungary to approve Sweden NATO bid immediately, Saudi Arabia denies it has joined BRICS, and China warns Ukraine to remove firms from "sponsors of war" list
OSINT Ltd
February 02, 2024
OSINTSUM
Global Situation Update
Friday 2 February 2024
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Headlines
International
Economy: IMF warns central banks not to rush into rate cuts
Terror: Threat from Islamist groups remains high according to UN report
Africa
Canary Islands: Migrant arrivals from West Africa up almost 1,300% year-on-year
Italy: "Mattei Plan" to reshape relations with Africa revealed
Asia/Oceania
Australia: Development in solar power urged to reduce reliance on China
Myanmar: Junta extends state of emergency
New Zealand: Interest in joining AUKUS stepped up
North Korea: Delegation to visit Moscow on 13 February
Pakistan: Electoral body meets to discuss deteriorating security state in west
China
China: US warns hacking operations have entered a more dangerous phase
Europe
Hungary: US politicians urging immediate approval of Sweden NATO bid
Slovakia: Tens of thousands protest against criminal law reforms
UK: Politician to quit parliament after death threats and arson attack
Latin America/Caribbean
Haiti: UN warns of increase in murder and kidnapping in Q4 2023
Middle East
Iran: IRGC officers pulled from Syria following Israeli strikes
Israel: Satellite photos indicate buffer zone along Gaza border
Jordan: Rights activists phones infected with Pegasus spyware
Saudi Arabia: BRICS membership still under consideration
Saudi Arabia: Push for US defence pact ahead of 2024 presidential election
US: Plan for strikes on Iran-backed targets approved
Yemen: UK will not deploy troops according to Deputy PM
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
China: Ukraine warned to remove firms from "sponsors of war" list
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International
Economy: IMF warns central banks not to rush into rate cuts
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of a greater risk to the global economy if central banks begin cutting interest rates too soon instead of "slightly" too late.
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva made the comments in response to suggestions the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and others should consider cutting rates - which are currently elevated to reduce inflation - to stimulate investment and economic growth.
The Federal Bank recently voted to keep rates as they are. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently said she was confident rate cuts were coming, but did not clarify a date.
Analyst Comment: Higher interest rates increase the return on savings and make borrowing more expensive. This reduces the amount of money people spend, which helps fight inflation but reduces economic growth.
Terror: Threat from Islamist groups remains high according to UN report
The terror threat from Islamist groups including Al Qaeda and Islamic State remains high in Africa and Afghanistan, and has risen in some regions including Europe according to a UN report.
The 23-page document also warned the relationship between Al Qaeda and Afghanistan's Taliban leadership remains close, and that unnamed member states were reporting that "high concentrations of terrorist groups" in the country were undermining regional security.
It also stated that violence and threats were escalating in West Africa and the Sahel due to a "deficit in counterterrorism capabilities" which are being exploited by Islamist groups in the region.
Africa
Canary Islands: Migrant arrivals from West Africa up almost 1,300% year-on-year
The number of migrants arriving in Spain's Canary Islands from West Africa in January was almost 1,300% higher than the number who arrived in the same month last year.
A total of 7,270 irregular migrants arrived in the Atlantic Ocean archipelago between 1 and 31 January, almost 13 times more than the 566 who arrived in January 2023.
The total number of migrants who entered Spain by both land and sea irregularly in January was 8,067 - a 524% increase on last year's figure.
Analyst Comment: The islands are a popular destination for migrants, as they are seen as a stepping stone to reaching mainland Europe due to their connection with Spain.
A record 39,910 migrants arrived in the Canary Islands last year, with the smallest island, El Hierro, receiving more migrants than its own population of 9,000.
Italy: "Mattei Plan" to reshape relations with Africa revealed
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with 25 African leaders at a one-day Italy-Africa summit in Rome on Wednesday (31 January) to unveil her $6bn plan to support development in the continent.
She announced a variety of initiatives aimed at improving economic links and turning Italy into an energy hub for Europe, while at the same time reducing migration from Africa.
While the plan was generally well received by the leaders, migrants in Africa have raised concern it will further increase the risk to their safety while transiting the continent en route to Europe.
Analyst Comment: The plan is due to start with a series of pilot schemes, including providing training in renewable energies in Morocco and modernising grain production in Egypt, before being extended across the continent.
Meloni is relying on the plan to help her meet an election pledge to reduce immigration, on which she is currently failing. Migration from North Africa to Italy across the Mediterranean increased from 105,000 in 2022 to 152,000 last year.
Source: African Development Bank Group
Asia/Oceania
Australia: Development in solar power urged to reduce reliance on China
A report by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency has recommended Australia develops its own solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing sector to reduce an over-reliance on China.
The study said that setting up a domestic solar PV industry would build resilience into future supply chain stocks and secure access to the solar PV modules that are crucial for Australia to meet its decarbonisation targets, as well as creating 4,000 well-paid jobs and reversing a talent-drain.
It estimated creating a supply chain capable of supporting 1 gigawatt of annual solar PV capacity would cost $3.2bn in subsidies over ten years, a figure which would increase to $7.8bn for a 5 gigawatt annual capacity.
Analyst Comment: Decades of Chinese solar PV development has pushed down the cost of solar panels by over two-thirds since 2016. Chinese companies dominate the global solar PV market, and are responsible for supplying over 90% of solar modules sold in Australia.
Myanmar: Junta extends state of emergency
Myanmar's military government has extended the country's state of emergency for another six months, further delaying the general election it has promised to hold.
The regime's National Defence and Security Council said the extension - the fifth since it was imposed following the military coup on 1 February 2021 - was necessary due to the ongoing security situation in the country.
The move is being viewed as an admission the country's armed forces do not have enough control to prepare for the elections that were due to see the country transition back into civilian rule.
Analyst Comment: Since the previous extension of was announced in August last year, the junta has lost control of many military positions in the northern Shah state and the western Rakhine State to ethnic militias, while the Border Guard Force in Karen state has also announced it will no longer cooperate with it.
New Zealand: Interest in joining AUKUS stepped up
New Zealand is stepping up its interest in joining the non-nuclear pillar of AUKUS due to Chinese aggression in the Pacific and concerns over a "reshaped world" according to a minister.
Winston Peters, who acts as New Zealands foreign and deputy prime minister travelled to Melbourne along with defence minister Judith Collins to meet their Australian counterparts Penny Wong and Richard Marles for the inaugural "2+2" Australia and New Zealand foreign and defence ministers' meeting yesterday (1 February).
They discussed approaches to foreign policy, security, and defence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, and following the meeting Marles announced an Australian delegation would travel to New Zealand "very shortly" to brief officials on pillar II of AUKUS.
Analyst Comment: AUKUS is the security pact between Australia, the UK, and US, prompted by growing Chinese influence in the Pacific, that has seen Australia invest billions of dollars in UK-designed submarines constructed with US technology.
Pillar II of the pact relates to the sharing of advanced military technologies including quantum computing and artificial intelligence. New Zealand has not been offered the chance to join pillar I, which relates to the sharing of nuclear submarine capabilities, nor would it accept due to its anti-nuclear stance.
North Korea: Delegation to visit Moscow on 13 February
A delegation of North Korean officials is to visit Russia's lower house of parliament on 13 February according to a statement by a member of Russia's opposition Communist Party.
Kazbek Taysaev added that Russia would reciprocate the visit by sending a parliamentary delegation to North Korea in March, in what would be further evidence of the countries' growing ties.
Analyst Comment: Since its invasion of Ukraine began to deplete its arms supplies, Russia has looked to North Korea and other countries hostile to the West, such as Iran, to supply it with drones and munitions.
The US has accused North Korea of supplying Russia with missiles and artillery shells for use in the Ukraine war in violation of a UN Security Council resolution.
Pakistan: Electoral body meets to discuss deteriorating security state in west
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) held a meeting to discuss the deteriorating state of law and order in the western states of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa over the last few weeks.
There has been an increase in attacks on political rallies, offices, and candidates, as well as a number of terror attacks. Many of these have been fatal, and some have had multiple casualties.
Even before the most recent incidents, the states were seeing high levels of violence. 93% of the 664 attacks carried out by groups linked to the Pakistan Taliban in the first 11 months of 2023 took place in Khyber Pakhtunkwa and Balochistan.
Analyst Comment: The Pakistan Taliban say it is carrying out attacks in the west in response to renewed military operations in the west of Pakistan. The group has been emboldened by the fact the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan has provided it with a safe haven it can come and go from with ease thanks to the countries' porous mutual border.
China
China: US warns hacking operations have entered a more dangerous phase
US intelligence officials have warned offensive Chinese cyber activity is moving beyond the spying and data theft of the last decade into direct attacks on critical national infrastructure.
The directors of the FBI, National Security Agency, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) warned lawmakers that the Volt Typhoon hacking group was planting malware on critical systems that if triggered could disrupt water, power, and transport, causing widespread chaos and potentially injuries and fatalities.
CISA director Jen Easterly said Chinese military doctrine was to attempt to induce social panic in their adversary, which it may employ against the US in an attempt to reduce public support for the defence of Taiwan in the event China invades the island.
Analyst Comment: A Russian-linked ransomware attack on a single pipeline - the Colonial Pipeline - in May 2021 shut down gas supplies on the Eastern Seaboard for several days. It prevented people going to work, school, and hospital, and caused some localised panic.
Europe
Hungary: US politicians urging immediate approval of Sweden NATO bid
Senior US politicians have told Hungary to approve Sweden's accession to NATO immediately, indicating Budapest risks damaging relations with Washington if it does not do so.
US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ben Cardin said he had "deep concerns" over the direction of Hungary's government due its previous delay in approving EU assistance to Ukraine and his continued obstruction of Sweden's NATO membership.
He added that these actions were leading him to question Hungary's suitability for the US's Visa Waiver Program, which permits citizens from 41 countries - including Hungary - to stay in the US for up to 90 days without a visa.
Analyst Comment: The EU recently pressured Hungary into approving an aid package to Ukraine - which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was heavily opposed to - by threatening to suspend Hungary's voting rights within the bloc under Article 7 of the EU Treaty if it did not do so.
Slovakia: Tens of thousands protest against criminal law reforms
Tens of thousands of people have demonstrated across Slovakia in opposition to plans by Prime Minister Robert Fico to close the office responsible for probing high-profile financial crimes.
The protests were some of the biggest that have taken place since almost-weekly rallies against Fico's proposed reforms - including shutting the Special Prosecution Office - began in December last year.
Media outlet Dennik N estimated around 30,000 people turned out in Bratislava. Opposition politician Jozef Hajko of the KDH party said the protests were beginning to have an impact and urged them to continue.
Analyst Comment: Both the EU and US have raised concerns about Fico's plans, which also include limiting protection for whistleblowers and reducing sentences for financial crimes, while Slovakian President Zuzana Caputova has said implementing them could threaten funding from the EU.
UK: Politician to quit parliament after death threats and arson attack
A Conservative politician in the UK is to step down ahead of the country's upcoming general election later this year due to abuse and death threats he says are linked to his support for Israel.
Mike Freer said the final straw was an arson attack on his office, which is located in Finchley and Golders Green - a constituency with a large Jewish population - in December last year.
He added he had received death threats from a group called Muslims Against Crusades and had begun wearing a stab-proof vest after discovering his office had been scoped out by Ali Harbi Ali, an Islamic State supporter who later went on to murder another UK politician.
Analyst Comment: Ali fatally stabbed Conservative politician David Amess in 2021. Amess became the second UK lawmaker to be murdered in the past decade, following the murder of Labour politician Jo Cox in 2016 by a far-right attacker.
Latin America/Caribbean
Haiti: UN warns of increase in murder and kidnapping in Q4 2023
A UN report found over 2,300 people were killed or kidnapped in Haiti between October and December last year, almost a 10% increase on the preceding three months.
The rise in violent incidents, which included over 1,600 murders, is being driven by the power vacuum created by the assassination of a powerful gang leader in capital Port-au-Prince known as Andrice Isca.
Over 1,000 people were internally displaced during the period while over 700 people were kidnapped - an increase of 20% compared to the previous quarter.
Analyst Comment: The deployment of a proposed UN-backed international security assistance force is currently delayed as the high court in Kenya - which is slated to lead the force - ruled the deployment of Kenyan security forces abroad as unconstitutional. The Kenyan government is to appeal the ruling.
In total, over 310,000 people in Haiti are homeless due to gang violence, including 170,000 children.
Middle East
Iran: IRGC officers pulled from Syria following Israeli strikes
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has reduced the number of its officers operating in Syria after more than half a dozen of them were killed in a series of Israeli air strikes there.
The decision to pull out senior officers - and instead rely on local Shia militias to carry out military activity - indicates Tehran's unwillingness to get drawn into a direct conflict in the Middle East.
No firm figure on the number of officers withdrawn from Syria has been given, but a regional security official briefed by Tehran said senior Iranian commanders had left along with "dozens" of mid-ranking officers.
Analyst Comment: Since the outbreak of its war on Hamas, Israel has stepped up its years-long campaign of air strikes on Iranian targets in Syria aimed at reducing its presence in the country and stemming the flow of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel: Satellite photos indicate buffer zone along Gaza border
Evidence Israel has begun work on creating a buffer zone with Gaza has appeared in satellite photos of the strip, which show new demolition along a 1km-deep path along the border between them.
Despite international objections, Israel has said it intends to establish a buffer zone between it and Gaza to protect it from a repeat of Hamas's 7 October incursion which saw at least 1,269 Israelis murdered.
The buffer zone will be situated within Gaza rather than Israel, reducing the amount of land available for use by Palestinians.
Analyst Comment: A recent assessment of structural damage in Gaza resulting from Israel's offensive suggested at least half of the buildings in the strip were either damaged or destroyed.
Jordan: Rights activists phones infected with Pegasus spyware
An investigation by Access Now and Citizen Lab found unidentified attackers had infected the devices of 35 members of Jordanian civil society with Israeli-made Pegasus spyware.
Those affected were engaged in defending civic freedoms and human rights, and exposing corruption. They included members of Human Rights Watch, journalists from the Organisation for Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, and the National Forum for the Defence of Freedoms.
Access Now said they believe the incidents are just the "tip of the iceberg", and that it is likely many more individuals' phones are compromised by the spyware, which can be installed in "zero click" attacks that don't rely on the user clicking a link to download it.
Analyst Comment: Middle East Monitor reports that while the perpetrators of the infections are as yet unidentified, it is likely Jordanian authorities and security services are responsible due to their increased crackdown on dissent and rights activism in recent years.
Russia/Ukraine Conflict
China: Ukraine warned to remove firms from "sponsors of war" list
Beijing has demanded Ukraine remove 14 Chinese companies from its list of firms designated as "international sponsors of war" to "eliminate negative impacts".
A Ukrainian official said the Chinese ambassador to Ukraine had warned the presence of Chinese companies on the list could have a negative impact on the countries' relations.
China was Ukraines biggest trading partner prior to Russia's invasion, and remains a major buyer of Ukrainian grain, sunflower oil, and Iron ore. While Beijing has not set out any potential penalties for failing to comply with its demands, a possible sanction could be to reduce or put a stop on any future purchases.
Analyst Comment: The list comprises of 48 countries from across the globe who Ukraine accuses of indirectly assisting or contributing to Russia's war efforts. There is no legal implication for being on the list, instead it is aimed at damaging the reputations of those who appear on it.
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